October 10, 2019 100

Ray Kurzweil: The Coming Singularity

Ray Kurzweil: The Coming Singularity


Well, by 2020 we’ll have computers that
are powerful enough to simulate the human brain, but we won’t be finish yet with reverse
engineering the human brain and understanding its methods. One of my main themes, and I’ve developed
this thesis over 30 years, is that information technology grows exponentially; the power
of computers are understanding the human brain, specializes solution of brain scanning, the
number of bits we move in the internet. Many different measures of information technology
double every year, or every 11 months, 13 months; depending on what you’re measuring. These technologies will be a million times
more powerful within 20 years. In fact, the speed of exponential growth is
itself speeding up. So, in 25 years these technologies will be
a billion times more powerful than they are today. And we’ve already seen that kind of progress. When I was an undergraduate we all shared
computer at MIT that took up half of a building. The computer and your cellphone today is a
million times cheaper and a thousand times more powerful. That’s a billion fold increase in price
performance of computing since I was an undergraduate. By 2029, and I’ve been quite consistent
on this date, we will have completed the reverse engineering of the human brain. And we’ve already made very good progress
on that. We’ve reversed engineered a number at different
regions, like the cerebellum, which is responsible for our skill formation and slices of cerebral
cortex where we do our cursive thinking and the auditory cortex, the visual cortex and
so on. By 2029, we’ll have reverse engineered and
modeled and simulated all the regions of the brain. And that will provide us the software/algorithmic
methods to simulate you know, all of the human brains capabilities including our emotional
intelligence. And computers at that time will be far more
powerful than the human brain. And we’ll be able to create machines that
really do have subtlety and suppleness of human intelligence. And they’ll combine that power with ways
in which machines are already superior to us. They can impart us all of human knowledge
with the few keystrokes, it can remember billions of things accurately. They can share knowledge in electronic speeds
that are million times faster than the human language. So, it will be very powerful combination. But the last point I’ll make is that it’s
not some alien invasion of intelligent machines coming from Mars to invade us. It’s coming from within our civilization. And the whole point of it is to extent our
reach. Ever since we picked up a stick to reach a
higher branch, we’ve used our tools to extend our reach. We can now already extend our reach mentally. I can take out device from my pocket and access
all of human knowledge in a few keystrokes. Half of the farmers in China have these devices
and could do the same thing; is pointing a real cultural revolution in China and around
the world. And these tools are continued to grow exponentially
in power. The singularity is not just that point where
we achieve human model and intelligence on a machine. That will start a new revolution where these
machines will continue to grow exponentially in power. They’ll be able to actually improve their
own software design. By 2045, we’ll have expanded the intelligence
of our human machine civilization a billion fold. That will be singularity and we borrow this
metaphor from physics to talk about an event horizon. It’s hard to see beyond. Well, it’s not the case that I’m only
looking at the optimistic side. I am an optimist. And I do think we’ve been helped more than
we’ve been hurt by technology already. Human life expecting was 37 in 1800. And human life was very hard disaster from
labor field, disease field and so on. But I’ve actually written extensively about
the dangers of all this. Bill Joyce’s article on the cover of Wired
Magazine, why the future does need, which talked about the grave dangers of Genetics
Nanotechnology and Robotics, came from my book. He says at the beginning of the article, he
got these ideas from my book, The Age of Spiritual Machines. And chapter 8 of the Singularity is Near is
called the deeply intertwine promise versus parallel of GNR, Genetics Nanotechnology and
Robotics. I’m working extensively with the army to
develop a rapid respond system to deal with the possible abuse of biotechnology. The same technologies set are empowering us
to reprogram biology away from cancer and heart disease, could also be use by a terrorist
to reprogram a biological virus to be more deadly or more communicable. And the good news is we actually have the
scientific tools to defend ourselves just like we defend ourselves from software viruses
with a rapid response system. Then we need to put a system like that in
place. But it’s not accurate to say that I’m
only painting a rosy future and that I have a utopian vision. My vision is not utopian. The power of these technologies will grow
exponentially, I believe that is inexorable that has gone on for the last 110 years since
1890 senses. What we do with these technologies is not
preordained, that future history has not been written. I am very concerned about the downsides. I’ve written extensively about them and
in fact, I’m working on defending against those. So, I am optimistic that we will get more
promise than parallel but they both exist. Technology has been a double edge sword ever
since fire and stone tools. I’ve been very active in talking about the
downside of technology, and there are dangers. A danger we face right now is the ability
for a bio-terrorist to use our biological sciences to reprogram a biological virus to
be deadly or communicable. And we have the ideas to combat that, but
they’re not yet in place and. So I think that’s an existential risk we
need to deal with very quickly. There’ll be new dangers from these new technologies. I’m optimistic but not sanguine, and I’m
not necessarily convinced that we won’t encounter painful episodes. I think, overall, we’ll be help more than
we’re hurt. But you only have to look to the 20th century:
we had a 180 million people die in the world of the 20th century. That scale of destruction was made possible
by technology. We’ve also helped ourselves enormously because
human life expectancy was 48 in 1900. We need to address this dangers and downsides. That’s what worries me.

100 Replies to “Ray Kurzweil: The Coming Singularity”

  • Verity says:

    What a delusional putz.

  • Russian Seal says:

    Bro I imma have alll the cybernetic parts

  • Michael Farrell says:

    I'll be 60…. Maybe I should quit taking drugs til then….

  • History is Fake says:

    Your dumb ass machines will never reach the level of the human brain, lucky if you reach the level of a Portia spider.
    AI is a joke, should be called artificial retardation because of the massive failures of AI.
    Garbage in garbage out= junk.
    Can't operate a car without crashing(simple sensor reading), can't read bar codes without screwing up, almost crashed the stock market….took 16 yrs to climb stairs and they still fall down when off camera.
    AI my ass. As real as nukes, moon landings and the fucking globe earth(other Jew BS).
    Programmable logic paths are not AI, it's garbage in garbage out. New AI same as old AI.. JUNK.

  • Frasiercraig says:

    AI is/are the evil spirits (devils army so to speak) that saturate the creation (some people can see them etc..). Using Quantum computers (D-Wave) as a bridge of sorts, they have created a net that makes use of the power of the sun (think chemtrails). BUT This is not how God devised things to be be and evil has gone too far (once again), hence we live in end times. The arrogance of these beings (both sides of the curtain) is staggering but they aren't going to get away with it, although they may have a short time. You see the Earth is simply too important as a sort of testing environment where spirits can experience being separate (an illusion of course) from God (and all that entails) for the purpose of spiritual growth. If this world were taken over completely by evil and enslaved or Gods spirit rendered irrelevant to Earths purpose (as almost is the case) no one in heaven is going to go out, as there will be little point. Evil has always coexisted with us but it's affect on our lives is mostly subject to our will. If they are able to manifest in this world and show up at your front door and shoot you using a robotic device that they have inhabited or control, that's a deal breaker. There is no way God is going to allow this to happen but as humanity has collectively allowed this to come about, we all get to make a difficult choice before this world expires. There's a reason why each and everyone of you are here to experience this time. Most of all know that you are eternal and never die, which is another way of saying, have no fear. As things progressively become worse in this world you are either going to turn to God (realising the supernatural for what it is) or you're going to hate God all the more and well, that's not going to be a good thing. The sooner you realise these things and turn your life over to God the better. Anyways it doesn't matter if you don't believe me we are all on our own paths, TRUTH will be revealed to all when they seek it.

  • Ruru Asile says:

    Hilarious good luck with those bs predictions…i love the focus on ai they're trying to create tho 💀💀😂

  • Larry McGee says:

    Very well said!

  • cally starforth hill says:

    Think about the bullshit this guy is trying to sell us.  The human brain is nothing like a computer.  THe way neurons fire is nothing like a binary system.  Aside from that THINK ABOUT IT.  We cannot even cure the common cold or find an effective non addictive pain killer .  Does anyone really think we can simulate the human brain??  Use your brain and think about it.  He's a con merchant

  • Large Coke says:

    will it have those annoying pop-ups?

  • Dontbea Hero says:

    I was a singularity once…, but those are just memories now.

  • jeff sidman says:

    NO ONE is questioning whether humans will use the new technology in negative or harmful ways. Of course they will. That's not the question. Why avoid the big question? We're not worried about bio-terrorists. We're worried about Skynet becoming a reality. Address THAT question. How is it that someone as smart as Ray Kurzweil missed that gigantic elephant in the room?

  • E C Holm says:

    That's 2 years.

  • Mathew Omolo says:

    I would want to hear about the future holistically, not just computers and gadgets existing in a vacuum without politics, religion, race relations, social pressures, economics and war. I think technology isn't even that high up in predicting the future.

  • deus vult says:

    You know why it's going to happen in 2029? Because I AM GONNA MAKE IT HAPPEN!

  • Sejo Hajdarbeg says:

    He's got reptilian forhead,full of wrinkles.Maybe he is a reptilian,for what he is doing is creating destruction of humansand intoducin AI as only life

  • Philip Ortíz says:

    I'm more afraid of what he didn't say

  • Ben Lewis says:

    You need to take a day off work man. Smoke a joint, drink wine IDGAF man celebrate life and what it offers. Everything you need is already here.

  • Brazilian Dude says:

    but will it run GTA5 max grafics with no FPS lag????

  • Hugh Munn says:

    If we merge with a.i. Will we be able to understand their language that they make up themselves?.

  • Kevin Worldsavior says:

    Relax! – In fact singularity means putting the horse behind the cart – We Humans can become Infinitely Healthy and by that even Immortal in less than a month and live for thousands of years – I got the Key to Immortality – Staying Absolutely Healthy All The Time, for Infinite Health = Immortality (8,500 years guaranteed) – Everybody can become Immune To Any Diseases – By doing my Discovery (just an exercise for a minute a day), that cures and prevents any Diseases, known on Earth, even Aging and Radiation Disease, for every cell of our bodies is shielded 100% from any external/internal (genetic) detrimental impact – I will describe my Discovery to everyone, who sends me an E-check for one million US Dollars (money can be negotiated) – In less than a month everybody will become Infinitely Healthy, Radiation-Proof and Immortal – Like the Gods who created us humans.

  • Brandon Corwin says:

    Is this guy Clifford Devoe?

  • Teresa B says:

    This guy is just a kid with a fear of death. He doesnt understand consciousness and never will. It can't be replicated or transferred. He is just a rich boy attempting to play God, but will fail.

  • Enrique Lara says:

    I was watching hated by the nation, black mirror and I ended up here

  • Spinnaker TheGreat says:

    2020 is in 18 months bruh, aint gonna happen… by 2030 we will NOT have simulated the human brain, its totally preposterous. The best we have to actually take a picture of the human brain is like an MRI… where you need to get into a huge machine which irradiates you like mad… that’s to take a few pictures… the ability to grasp reality ie sensory technologies need to improve exponentially which they are not at all… we are so far from all this. Sleep well.

  • Mokhtar Nasser says:

    Lol. Now we are in mid 2018 and we are not close to singulating the human brain

  • Elijah Melendez says:

    I predict we will get to a point where the world governments will have some sort of public currency, robots will take over period. fat people everywhere and overpopulation of some sort. theres no doubt in my mind humans have created a new weapon, a new predator , its fucking amazing , humans, eventually, literally, won't be needed for anything. I believe musk was right nuerolink, some kind ofdigitized suicide, hopefully.

  • The Singing Pictures says:

    The Bitcoin blockchain is the biggest computing network in the world, once layer2 smart contracts come via #LightningNetwork and then finally a AI layer to automate, we will have a automation on a global scale.

  • Kronaphasia says:

    WRONG DIRECTION RAY. Digital technology/hard ware is not the answer to human evolution. Humans must evolve genetically & spiritually (non-religious) our brains. Using hard wired technology is a crutch & should not replace the human flesh. You "jet pack dreamers" are always failing in your predictions of the future & have little regard for a Star Trek Next Generation Pakled human race scenario.

  • Keith Vrotsos says:

    Spoken like a true SYNTH!

  • Malik Hatch says:

    woody allen's nerd brother

  • Wolvinius says:

    Don't believe what a jew says…

  • Steve Dave says:

    He's lying. They already have and they already have an artificial matrix hive mind

  • redglazedeyez says:

    the great computing power still wont be able to tie a shoelace

  • Barkain says:

    I'd like to see a nano tech that slowly replaces dead and dyeing brain cells until only nanobots running the simulation that is you is left. I don't think anyone would even notice it happening and would also prolly be the most pleasant way to be digitized

  • Greg Gatsby says:

    Isn't this just a way of making humans extinct? Once the computers surpass us, they'll create their own computers and have no need of humans. What if these supercomputers practice a form of eugenics that eliminates people?

  • Jarrod Stowe says:

    AI is made in the image of man, man is not only given to death but also self destruction. As such it's a probable conclusion that AI will either take on the shortcomings of man, or man will be destroyed because of his shortcomings.

  • Mark56 says:

    I just want to know when I can quit my day job. 😁

  • atomic man says:

    just cause the hardware will be there via moore's law doesn't mean the software will too.. and no body's writing any software that figures shit out yet… so this guys missing half his puzzle with his predictions

  • L1nK says:

    i'm looking forward to it, hope singularity ends slave-making and creating monetary capitalism

  • CaptainSkelebones says:

    WRONGAMUNDO fuckin nerd. its 2020, im sitting here baning on rocks with sticks, just sacraficed a pig to the god dingulon and im gonna throw a virgin into a super volcano

  • Half the time Every time says:

    Speaking to the super intelligent data crunching machine that will process all of the information on the internet in a matter of hours, YouTube comments included,

    Hello

  • J3R3MY W says:

    Heya so smart his forehead mimics the look of a human brain 👏🏻👏🏻

  • Atomic Lobotomy says:

    Kurzweil may be right. The human brain may be reversed engineered by whatever date — and this may pave the way to the creation of new super-brains. But would these new brains be able to answer the basic philosophical questions – – the most basic being, as Leibniz and Heidegger have contented, Why is there something rather than nothing? Why do matter or energy actually exist? Can we discern some plausible reason for why the universe came into being? However many neurons Kurzweil's super-brains may have, it is unlikely they would be able to move beyond limits that characterize human thinking at the present time.

  • Insert Name Here says:

    what a bunch of bullshit. 100 years ago we predicted that humans would be vacationing on the moon. this kind of predicting is no different than complete fantasy. we will degress into totalitarianism more likely. humans are inherently evil. no amount of tech can erase our evil nature. only Jesus can create a perfect world.

  • How to Shotbow says:

    The only "downside" he gives is bio-terrorism. Never does he mention the social/cultural tension and politics throughout this presumed process, nor does he describe how people feel right now about this process.

  • Robby1424 ok says:

    I literally see this mans videos being played by school children 200 years from now as to what the fuck humans were thinking and how did they ignore such an OBVIOUS fucked up situation

  • Kevin Roth says:

    The fear behind this is based in ignorance. There’s no fear to be had. Machines will not take over our place on Earth. Technology will not shorten our existence, it will drastically extend it. Genetic modification, machine learning, nano-technology, utilizing quantum technology, im all in for all of it. In 30 years, we may have technology that extends our life expectancy to 300. Advancement is always a balance of good vs bad. Utilization vs abuse. That’s the nature of intellegent life.

  • Jordan Land says:

    Here he is talking about the ai apocalypse, whilst I am pondering on how his forehead looks like a brain in and of itself…

  • Dr. Peter Meier says:

    Ray, please consider https://mysoul.think-systems.ch/rules.htm – prevents category errors… let us talk!

  • steiner333 says:

    A computer with emotional intelligence? I have no idea what that means…

  • Alex Shaykevich says:

    So far off. 2020? Not even close.

  • Gerald Tir says:

    Oh Dear, I’m getting a very bad feeling about you mate !!!!!

  • jackgoldman1 says:

    Where are we going? To 1984. Humans will be farmed as free slaves. Machines have information. Human beings have wisdom, something machines lack. Why are humans so obsessed with become God's and living forever to rule humans?

  • jackgoldman1 says:

    I don't believe a light bulb is more intelligent or better than a human baby. The seed wisdom is superior to machines. All machines do is supplement human life.

  • jackgoldman1 says:

    It all smacks of globalism like Communism, who's goal is always to take over the world and all humans as free slaves. We are slaves if we work for worthless computer credits and legally counterfeited currency. Elites have it great. The 99% suffer.

  • Tim Grinton says:

    With which bit of tec will we reproduce the function of the Pineal gland . .?

  • Tim Grinton says:

    Be specific. Tell the people you have no way of keeping an asi under control. No way ,not now not ever. The singularity = gray goo

  • Earl E Wischmeier says:

    I just ran across this gentleman's name through listening to Mechio Kaku which made me curious how they missed meeting up with Ingles Swan?

  • BLY says:

    is the risk worth it? there are two possibilities heaven on earth or hell on earth

  • Charles says:

    Full of shit.
    Another baby sacrificing Luciferian doing the bidding of his masters.
    Wake up fools.

  • Anthony Salvatore says:

    Turning us into cyborgs.
    Remember that documentary "The Matrix.
    Thats what this scumbag wants.

  • Zach Phelan says:

    Its 2019 wheres my robot

  • Sean Devine says:

    I'm so scared.

  • last shadow says:

    now 2020 ( almost) and my computer is soooo dumb

  • Garrett Nadeau says:

    God is dead

  • Simon Vance says:

    CREEPY. No thanks, I was born human and I'd rather stay that way. The people behind this can stick their A.I interface microchips straight up their ass. I don't care what 'law' they pass or what they do to society to blackmail us to go along with it, I won't be playing their game..

  • word2urmomz says:

    His forehead is a maze

  • QRFMBR says:

    no computer is going to have consciousness and go off on it's own and do whatever. Such a fantasy. I agree computers will continue to grow in processing power but they won't be truly "intelligent". The top computers with the latest "AI" can't even do insect navigation. Stick to synthesizers, dude.

  • Tom Meyers says:

    I wonder if Artificial Intelligence will be like Snoop Dog?

  • Tom Meyers says:

    Will super smart machines be interested in conversing with us? Like humans are interested in conversing with Marmots?

  • Tom Meyers says:

    Personality comes with intelligence. A personality is a byproduct of intelligence.

  • James Brooks says:

    2019. still waiting ray…

  • Erik Donovan says:

    Kurzweil makes the SERIOUS WRONG PRESUMPTION that equates the BRAIN with the MIND. THE BRAIN IS NOT THE MIND. The brain is like computer hardware, and the MIND is like the software. Two COMPLETELY DIFFERENT things. The brain dies, but the MIND lives on to be downloaded into different "computer hardware". Kurzweil's entire HYPOTHESIS IS BASE ON A WRONG PRESUMPTION, which he does not, and cannot, PROVE.

  • Sara Bovenzi says:

    This is incredibly irritating. It is an isolated left brain in overdrive. It's head intellect saying 'can it be done' with out the wisdom of heart intelligence asking 'is it appropriate?'….we are amazing feeling sensory beings that have had these incredibly sophisticated skills shut down ensuring our connection to non local and non dualistic consciousness shut down (being burnt at the stake does that to a collective psyche). Most people will fight for their limitation and not learn to make the shift from divided head consciousness to a coherent heart intelligence that entrains a brain into whole brain functioning turns the body on for life, health and wellbeing as well as tap a person back into the higher sensory abilities that each human is born with. Having opened up to this incredibly diverse and multidimensional world the smart grid, GeoINT, the internet of things etc really does comes across as a superior command and control system only but boring as [email protected] and lacking any creativity. As Dr Katherine Horton says 'all systems become psychopathic in time'….come on people, try tapping into coherent heart rhythm intelligence and experience a shift for yourself. Expand your own conscious level. 🙂

  • MatteBlackFalcon says:

    AI is basically an completely electrical human…anything electrical AI can control.

  • Serious Face says:

    Yeah still waiting for my robo waifus

  • PolarBearsStare says:

    The solar flare card says "Not"

  • JW Chang says:

    Anyone in 2019?

  • Joshua Nesbitt says:

    And with one good size solar flare it could all go bye bye

  • Andrew Gerard says:

    How do we know that the singularity hasn't already happened, but the AI just hasn't decided to reveal it to us yet? I doubt they'd have much trouble fooling us if it was to its benefit.

  • MHz Boxing says:

    Perhaps your a fool..
    If these computers are so smart … Ask it .. how were the Pyramids Build…. Fool

  • Alessandro Fuselli says:

    Funny how rich people get to decide the future of everybody else, without even contemplating whether if they have the right to do so or whether the rest of the population like their schemes.

  • Todd K says:

    Only one year left for this dude's prophecy to come true. Don't hold your breath.

  • Bman says:

    Most of the science is kept amongst the small group of intellectuals. However , most won't be able to afford the cutting edge of the technology. They need to thin out the herd.

  • Daz Lolkaitis says:

    I'm living proof of biological singularity, all my dreams are 100% engineered by third party beings from another world. Biological Immortality may be hidden within a select population of people like me.

  • BLH BSIT says:

    Too bad we can't transplant artificial intelligence into a president that has NONE.

  • antonio volpe says:

    Silicon is at its limit

  • JacobCreeCirilo says:

    It’s hereeeeee

  • freethinker424 says:

    Yeah, I’m 27 years old and I’m just going to take a wild guess and say I probably won’t live long enough to see the singularity happen, if it ever does.

  • X Green says:

    He was dead wrong. It's almost 2020.

  • Simon Vance says:

    Super creepy…Kurzweil talks as though he IS A.I… at least an 'A.I prophet'… "We have reverse engineered the human brain"? Who the fuck ARE you man?!… This is a dark path for humanity…absolutely UNnatural evolution… No thanks… stick your A.I and your microchip agenda for the human race straight up your ass…

  • Milo The Russian Blue says:

    Only the aliens can save us.

  • Daniel Anderson says:

    What it do? What it be like?

  • Midas says:

    Fingers crossed the AI keeps pets.

    I'd like that.

  • Antonio Chiappetta says:

    I’m 10 years? No way

  • WoW Thats Great says:

    So amazingly interesting

  • Bman says:

    A.I will be here after humans become extinct, after that something else will rise up, and so on and so on…

  • edwin martin says:

    Oh shit.. this will come next year.. lets see.. 🙂

  • Lance Ash says:

    EVIL EVIL MAN. SICK, DELUDED, EVIL PERSON. DOESN'T KNOW WHAT HE'S ASKING FOR.

  • abhishek butola says:

    ok throughout history terrorist never were interested in investing their money on R & D.

    First you create a dangerous thing (ex nuclear bomb , biological devices etc. etc.)
    Second you scare masses in name of terrorism
    Third create a misadventure by your own stupity and politics
    Fourth blame it on terrorist.

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